When the last pre-election survey result comes out, the real battle for the presidency begins.

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Counting Unhatched Eggs?

I once wrote “Screw the Surveys”, “The Problem with Noynoy”, “Gibo Should Bolt Out Too” and a few more articles that didn’t sit well with the so-called ‘public sentiment’. Note however that I use the term ‘public sentiment’ here loosely because its meaning varies based on how one qualifies the word “public”.

Months or weeks after that, we realized that surveys are screwed, that there is somehow a problem with Noynoy and Gibo decided to lie low from his Lakas-Kampi CMD party — not a bolt-out, sure, but he did resign as party chair.

Now, I don’t want to rain on someone’s expected parade. But let’s face it — here in this country, anything is possible. For where else can you find a swarm of dead flying voters delivering “command votes”?

The Yellow Army need not ready their yellow balloons and confetti until the last hour because high expectations + high distrust = disaster.

That’s one very bad equation.

How utterly devastating it would be for people who have gambled all their hopes on Noynoy when they realize that their herd simply don’t have enough votes to elect a preferred president.

Of course, there are other recourse, says the Ghandi-like Noynoy — another EDSA — worse than what’s happening in Thailand.

All we are to these gods are pawns — necessary (possibly even willing) sacrifices for a “greater” end. What end, I ask? Theirs? Or their ‘supporters’?

There goes your answer to the endless debate “Which came first, the chicken or the egg?” — well, apparently for these folks — the chicken.

Low impact survey results

To make matters worse, one’s delusion is only amplified by overblown surveys trumpeted by the media. Can you blame Noynoy for thinking that he is the 15th president? Why, all those around him hail him as such.

If you still believe surveys make winners or that it has the ability to accurately capture “electorate sentiment”, you should know that the SWS survey company made a study about the impact of pre-election surveys to the voting population. Unsurprisingly, it proved that:

“In the last Senatorial elections, surveys affected the plans of very few voters, and moved these very few slightly towards underdog candidates, according to analysis of the SWS May 2-4, 2007 pre-election survey.”

The headline even aptly read: “The effect of surveys on voting plans was tiny, and pro-underdog”.

So, if it does have an effect, it would be to pull-up the possible votes for the underdogs and not the other way around. One possible explanation for this is that people/voters seem to be more sympathetic of those trailing the surveys thus — the mythical “sympathy vote”. It’s funny how all of a sudden sympathy votes for those at the tail-end of the surveys are now being dismissed as negligible by those atop it — when in fact, Noynoy Aquino’s much-praised surge in the surveys (and his accidental presidential candidacy, to begin with) is attributed to and relies heavily on sympathy votes automatically generated by his mother’s untimely demise.

If we will follow this logic, that people tend to sympathize with the underdogs, it’s only fair to assume that Manny Villar, Gibo Teodoro and Erap Estrada are still very much “in the race”. And for Team Yellow to hastily proclaim as early as now that the presidency is “in the bag” is to foolishly give in perception. You know what they always say, there’s the Truth and then there’s Perception. So until the very last vote is counted, and until the new president is sworn in, it would be imprudent to claim victory.

Survey says…

I guess the question now is not whether these surveys are ‘accurate’ but whether they’re taking this so-called ‘pulse’ from the ‘right’ people — those who actually make up the majority of the voting population.

It’s not so much about demographics. In fact, we are consistently told that their ‘sampling’ is considerably reliable and that it captures pretty much a sizable/scalable representation of the country’s voters.

But is that really how we vote? Is this sampling size attuned to how the voting population is spread throughout the country? Say, if Luzon is 45% of the voting population, are Luzon votes (respondents) given their corresponding ‘weight’ relative to that of the entire country’s?

If that’s not how it’s done, then we can’t really rely too much on the accuracy of the result — even with the +/- 2% error margin factored-in. And lest we forget, there’s possible “donkey vote” to consider.

Are you ready for Erap 2.0?

To understand why Erap Estrada will win is to understand the word “masa” (mainstream) in relation to how most of the electorate perceive politicians and celebrities. You only need to watch a few Filipino movies to get an idea of how we stereotype people: Hacienderos are evil. The tilling farmer born into poverty is inherently righteous and was only driven by abject poverty and injustice to commit unspeakable crimes. At least, that’s what it says in the movies. But guess what, some movies are as real as it gets to most of us. And as we relate to protagonists on the screen, so do we relate — in real life — to the people who are merely playing the part.

Joseph “Erap” Ejercito Estrada has long been marketed and believed to be a champion of the poor — of the “masa”.

These people make up over 90%+ of the electorate — and it is in their hands that the future of this country lies. It is their sentiment — and not the upper class’ who will dictate who gets to claim that much-coveted seat in Malacanang.

And guess what, their hearts belong to nobody but the charismatic Erap. He with that legendary reputation for womanizing, drinking and gambling — and yes, even in plundering — he with that symbolic wristband and signature mustache — flaws and all, will reclaim his destiny once more — the way he believes he should — through an election.

Let us not forget that he holds the distinction of being the president with the highest and greatest mandate in recent memory — an amazing approx. 39% approval vote (says a 1998 exit poll result).

If our electoral laws required both plurality and majority win, his win will be incontestable.

John Marzan of Political Junkie, in his post “Erap’s Poll Ratings Before EDSA Dos” revisits his old posts and related chronicles of Erap’s popularity during the last months leading to EDSA 2 — where he notes that masa support for Erap hasn’t lost its strength even when his administration was being rocked by plunder scandal.

At this point in our history when self-rated poverty is at its record low of 43%, according to this SWS survey, it’s not impossible to predict an Erap comeback.

It’s interesting to note the following statements taken from the same survey release:

“The proportion of families experiencing involuntary hunger at least once in the past three months went to 21.2%, or an estimated 4.0 million households, according to the SWS March 2010 Pre-Election Survey, conducted from March 19-22, 2010. This is 3 points below the record-high incidence of 24.0% in December 2009, but still far above the 1998-2010 average of 13.4% [Chart 1, Table 1].”

1998. Who was the president at that time? Erap, right?

“The survey found that 43% (est. 8.1 million) families rate themselves as Mahirap or Poor, matching the record-low Self-Rated Poverty set in March 1987, which was short-lived.”

1987. Who was the president at that time? Cory Aquino.

“On the other hand, a new record-low 31% (est. 5.9 million) rate their families’ food as Mahirap [Charts 2 and 3, Tables 2 and 3]. The previous record-low Self-Rated Food Poverty was 35%, set in June 2004.”

June 2004. Who was the president at that time? And the year before that? Gloria Arroyo.

From a 2004 PCIJ report, “The poor vote is a thinking vote”:

The first time in the post-Marcos era that the poor vote was seen as significant was in the 1998 presidential elections. The SWS’s May 11, 1998 exit poll found that class, more than age, gender, or geography determined the vote. The great majority (91.1 percent) of voters in the D and E classes voted for Joseph Estrada.

But why? Haven’t we learned anything all these years? Why, the surveys say it’s a probable Aquino win or a Villar?

Tsk. As usual, the campaign operators, like their bosses, kept on wooing the wrong crowd all this time — except for the NPs and the PMPs. They spent a lot of their precious time harping on the survey results.

I bet that if we get down to it and actually check each and every so-called virtual ‘supporter’ they have, it’s not surprising that many if not most of them aren’t even registered voters at all.

Yes, the Liberals are overflowing with supporters, the Nacionalistas and maybe even the ruling Lakas-Kampi CMD. But the question is, are they the ‘deciding’ supporters?

Ten days more before we shade the ballots.

Erap will win in May 2010 according to my estimates. Every dog will have its day. May 10 will be Erap’s. This may be the biggest surprise of the year if all you believe is mainstream media. But if you actually go down to where the action is, you’d never have to be surprised.

Actually, if Erap wins, that will be the clearest evidence that an honest election has taken place.

Of course, I may be wrong. In fact, I must be terribly wrong. And don’t we all wish I am?

But what if I’m right? Will you leave your job, take to the streets, go on hunger strike and shout until your mouths run dry? I hope not.

You see, it is this vicious cycle of fear-mongering breeding national distrust that feed the maggots of this festering wound. It is the cancer that is eating us up alive. And until we start accepting true public sentiment, all this talk about democracy and ‘making your vote count’ is nothing but hypocritical displays of concern for the country. It’s time to let the public decide. Elite rule powered by the middle-class has brought us one too many disasters already.

The so-called EDSA 2 proved to us that the highly-educated aren’t always right and the poor aren’t always wrong. And compared to each other, the lower class seems to be more adaptable and realistic. These poor people do not have the luxury of missing a day’s work for street congregations nor buying stickers to stick onto their bikes or wear fancy campaign clothing.

Not an Erap fan?

Don’t worry just yet. Just because he’ll win doesn’t mean he’ll get to be president. No story is a good story if there are no twists. We all know he’s barred from ANY reelection — and the constitution says so, clear as day. Why he was ‘allowed’ to run was clearly due to some other people’s vested interest. So if he does win, it’s not going to be a walk in the park towards the gates of Malacanang.

These people think that it’s impossible for Erap to win again, but they also believe some his supporters will vote for him — just enough to take away possible votes from Manny Villar or to a certain extent, Noynoy Aquino.

‘Divide and conquer’ has always been the ruling administration’s strategy to win. After all, it’s easier to ‘alter’ election results if they’re too close to each other.

The problem is, they may have underestimated Erap and his flock of supporters. Just because the Yellow, Orange and even Green campaign rallies appear like an overflowing sea of thick crowds, the candidates count each head as a virtual vote as if they know each person’s heart.

They are hugely mistaken.

I once went to a campaign rally and saw a huge crowd before me. Anyone would assume that these people are voting for these candidates.

But when I went about asking a few people there who they would vote for, I got the same grin and response — “Erap pa rin.”(Erap still.) And when I asked them further, ‘But why do you have this yellow/orange ribbon on your tricycle?’, I got fairly the same answer. “Wala lang. Nakiki-uso lang.” (That’s nothing. Just joining the bandwagon.)

These people know how overly critical and judgmental most people can be with another person’s preferred candidate, hence the apprehension to express themselves freely. But come election day, no judging eyes will be looking over their shoulders, mocking them and their choices. And like it or not, our future as a country is hinged on their votes and ability to choose wisely.

Fear not, for wisdom is acquired in many ways — and in the unforgiving streets of the deprived Metro, being wise is not an option — it is the only way to survive. I worry more about the much-hyped “youth vote” — if there is indeed such a homogenous one — than any so-called “poor vote”.

Maybe, if Erap does win, that would be his once in a lifetime chance at making amends for his previous transgressions. Not many people people are given a second chance. And we can only hope that he doesn’t screw it up this time. Or at the very least, keep the country afloat as we wait for another six grueling years for a shot at “change”.

Other Probabilities

Of course there are other probabilities. The way I see it:

• If Erap Estrada loses, he may have been cheated.
• If Noynoy Aquino loses, he may not have been cheated.
• If Gibo Teodoro wins, he may not have cheated.
• If Manny Villar wins, he may not have cheated.
• If Eddie Villanueva wins, he cannot have possibly cheated.
• If Gordon loses, he has not been cheated.

I, for one, am not a die-hard supporter of ANY presidential candidate, but just recently, I have been trying to condition myself of the many possible outcomes of this elections. My gut tells me it’s probable that Erap will reclaim the presidency, but I have also dreamed on many occasions, of Gibo Teodoro doing his usual presidential duties. And contrary to what surveys say, even that is not a far-fetched scenario.

So, are you ready for Erap 2.0? You don’t have to throw a party, all you have to do is to consider that possibility. And prepare your passport and visa, I guess. :)

In the end, I just wish we can all just co-exist and get along. I’m pretty sure even the late president Cory Aquino would want that.