At first glance I misread Amando Doronila’s article in today’s Philippine Daily Inquirer. I thought I read “With Edu, admin turns to tried formula”. A quick closer look revealed that the word in question is actually tired, not tried. Maybe it’s my age finally catching up with me. Better schedule an appointment with EO Optical.

In the context of “tried and tested” formula, it made sense, I thought at first. After all, former president Joseph “Erap” Estrada did it in 1998 — won the highest seat in the land on account of undisputable charisma — the gift and curse of a movie star — the ultimate proof of this “tried and tested” formula.

The only difference now is that Edu will be playing against “near celebrities” like Senator Mar Roxas (who may be banking on lovely new wifey broadcaster Korina’s mass appeal). He wouldn’t be needing much of it though. That emotional withdrawal of presidential bid to support formerly underdog and unassuming Senator Noynoy Aquino on that fateful day in Club Filipino was more than enough to raise him to celebrity status — just a tad short of reliving “the great sacrifice” reminiscent of former vice-president Doy Laurel of EDSA notoriety.

But this time, mere mass appeal or a certain level of fame may not be enough to win the vice-presidency.

People are learning from past mistakes — very slow and very little — but learning just the same.

Doronila may be right when he says it is a “tired” formula. We’ve been through the same thing when both tv and news personalities Loren Legarda and Noli De Castro fought for the same position in the 2004 elections. We all know what happened after. The Senate or the Vice-Presidency didn’t really change for the  better. If there were any changes, they were so little they are hardly recognizable.

Edu’s entry into the game, as Manny Villar says in an interview, makes the race more exciting.

Well, I’d have to disagree.

There is nothing exciting with a late entry candidate who is formerly intent to run for a lower position on a more image-advantaged party. Whatever votes Edu Manzano might take away from other parties would be very little and almost negligible — and that’s  an already generous assessment.

The vice-presidency is either Mar’s or Loren’s — no doubt. Although I lean towards Mar, not because I like him or that I’ll vote for him, but because it is the most reasonable assumption based on my own surveys.

I think Edu Manzano knew from the very start that his chances of winning the elections would be better if he chose to run as senator under the Liberal Party to which all the celebrities, calculating businessmen and self-assessed righteous people are flocking like crazy.

Why he chose to run as Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro’s VP under the doomed merger of Lakas-Kampi CMD predominantly controlled by Gloria Arroyo — undoubtedly the country’s most unpopular president next only to megalomaniac dictator Ferdinand Marcos — poses a question so basic that I’d like to scratch my head many times over in disbelief.

Why did Edu choose to run for a higher position with lesser chances of winning when the senatorial position itself is hard enough to clinch? Remember, new senatorial candidates would be running against reelectionists. New faces with very little to show for would have a hard time keeping their names top of mind to voters.They either must have millions of money to spend to masa-targeted tv ads or must ally themselves to parties with enough strength and reputation to carry their names in campaign sorties. But even that is a long shot for a newcomer.

It is a question probably best answered by Liberal Party spokesperson Butch Abad when asked for a reaction regarding Edu’s acceptance of PaLaKa’s offer. Abad, who knew they were in constant talks with Edu regarding a spot in LP’s senatorial slate, says that maybe the “pressure was too much” for Manzano to take, hence there were no other choice but to give in. Besides, he has been identified with the government for a long time and he’s always been with Lakas, never changed parties. And yes, he’s been appointed to OMB in the first place. Quid pro quo. Elections are the best time to collect “debt” owed anyway. What else is new?

Clearly, Malacanang has long been panicky re 2010. But of course, they wouldn’t admit it. First, current VP Noli De Castro declines GMA’s offer. They are left without a strong candidate. Enter Gibo — from NPC — virtually unknown to many — except to those who closely follow Philippine politics.
You have a candidate faring badly at the surveys — an elitist by every inch — and endorsed by admin’s PaLaKa. A simple “kiss” is all it took to seal Gibo’s fate — he either makes history or breaks it — either way the prognosis is not favorable unless of course “winds of change” would blow their way.

Problem is that you’ve got an unpopular presidentiable in tandem with a relatively popular and unwinnable candidate — you have yourself a recipe for disaster in 2010. This will make Gibo’s win (in the most unlikely chance he does) questionable in all merits. It’s a problem — a clear one, whether they deny it or not. Had Malacanang been wise enough, if they were really going for the “tried” formula, they should have convinced Willie Revillame to be Gibo’s VP. But then, that may be impossible too, given that if Willie wanted to run in the first place, he would have done so under Manny Villar’s wings.

Too late for that now. Or is it? PaLaKa is yet to hold its National convention and most probably make things official on November 19.

So what’s it gonna be? Tried or tired? Look closely.

And now, to visit EO Optical…